A Triad for the USMCA
Political leadership, negotiation skills, and the private sector: the triad for a successful review
Any trade agreement is the result of political negotiation between countries whose interests converge in one purpose: to build a mutually beneficial situation. This can aim to improve internal economies, facilitate or build value chains, consolidate a regional block for geopolitical reasons, or a combination of these and other motives.
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As with any negotiation, each party comes to the table with advantages and disadvantages. The size of the economy, the availability of strategic resources, geographic position, production costs, among others, are criteria that define the starting point between countries.
When two developed economies are involved in this exchange, one of them the largest in the world, against an emerging economy like ours, the negotiation skills of our representative at the table become even more important. This is the case with the USMCA, which will be reviewed in 2026.
In my experience as a participant in the Fourth Room in NAFTA, EU-Mexico FTA, and other commercial negotiation milestones for Mexico, I believe that a successful review of the USMCA is based on three aspects: political leadership, negotiation skills, and private sector support.
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Political leadership belongs to whoever leads the country. Claudia Sheinbaum will inaugurate her commercial skills with counterparts yet to be defined. In the United States, Trump's campaign has encountered enthusiasm generated by Kamala Harris, and it is still uncertain who will win. If the former president repeats, Sheinbaum would face a fierce negotiator. In Canada, elections will be held in 2025, and Trudeau's continuity is unclear.
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Negotiation skills rest with the Cabinet. Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Marcelo Ebrard, in Foreign Affairs and Economy, respectively, have good credentials. The heads of Agriculture, Energy, and Environment will also be important, with technical people arriving in these portfolios.
Finally, the private sector is crucial. As the generator of productive activity, businesses have first-hand technical information to strengthen the negotiating team. It would be beneficial if Altagracia Gómez, the future head of the Business Advisory Council and the link with the business sector for reviewing the USMCA, could revive the momentum of the Fourth Room. There is much enthusiasm for the country to do well.
Mexico has two years to prepare, and the future president is well-timed to call for and lead a successful review. We hope she does so.
CUMULONIMBUS: A future federal deputy was assassinated in Sinaloa, an important capo was captured without the government's knowledge, and Mexicans are fleeing to Guatemala due to violence—all in one week, reflecting the complicated scenario López Obrador is leaving behind.
BY BOSCO DE LA VEGA
COLLABORATOR
@BOSCODELAV
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