Harris Boosts the Democrats, But...

The "honeymoon" that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently enjoying seems to have given the Democrats an advantage in an electoral campaign that, less than two months ago, they believed was lost and could still lose. Because the election is still the Republican Donald Trump's to lose.

Since her nomination at the end of July, Harris has sparked enthusiasm among the Democrats and achieved a slight overall lead of 45.8% to 43.7% over Trump, the controversial former president who has reverted to insulting his opponents due to a lack of better responses.

The well-received selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the vice-presidential candidate gave the Democrats depth, though it also brought some controversy regarding his military service.

The reality is that a few months ago, there was a consensus regarding the "predictable" candidates from both parties: Americans would have preferred someone else. President Joe Biden, at 81 years old, was seen as too old and visibly weak, while the Republican Trump, at 78 years old, appeared more energetic but ethically undesirable.

Biden's decision to withdraw his candidacy after a disastrous debate on June 27 and pressure from his party members put the spotlight on Trump and his problems.

According to the reputable website FiveThirtyEight, which specializes in polling analysis, Harris already has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, three of the seven "swing" states where the election is expected to be decided. Trump leads, also slightly, in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, but in the opinion of the Cook Political Report, there has been a fundamental shift in the situation, even in the campaigns where legislative majorities are at stake.

But given the peculiarities of the U.S. electoral system, where each state chooses a number of electors based on its population, the election is still Trump's to lose.

In fact, it recalls an inconsistency: on two occasions in the last 25 years, the Democrats won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College.

In the 2000 election, Republican George W. Bush received 50,456,002 votes against Democrat Al Gore's 50,999,897, but the Republicans won 271 electoral votes against the Democrats' 266. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton received 65,853,514 votes against Republican Trump's 62,984,828, but Trump won 304 electoral votes against her 227.

Will history repeat itself?

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS
CONTRIBUTOR
JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM
@CARRENOJOSE1