What Would a President Kamala Harris Mean for Mexico?

Only 65 days remain until the upcoming U.S. elections on November 5th. Time will fly. On that day, we will know who will lead the next federal government in that country. It’s a matter of global importance given the role the Superpower plays in the world. And it is crucial for Mexico due to the deep ties that bind us to our northern neighbor.

I am not an interventionist, but I am among those who are pleased that Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz were chosen by the Democratic Party as their candidates for president and vice president of their country.

Kamala is the first Black woman, the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India, to become a presidential candidate with real chances of winning. Governor Walz is a teacher at heart, the most positive and impactful profession in any society. Both have a progressive profile, supportive of justice, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability.

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Harris's candidacy has revived the Democratic Party. After several months during which most observers believed Donald Trump's return to the White House was inevitable, Biden's withdrawal and Kamala's selection as his replacement have restored hope that the Republican candidate might be defeated again in November. It’s going to be a close race.

The candidacies of Harris and Walz are good news for the United States. They give hope that democracy will survive in their country and, consequently, will strengthen globally. If she wins, Kamala will inspire women's struggles for equality across all regions.

But as Mexicans, we must ask ourselves what Kamala and Tim represent for Mexico. Beyond the pleasantries, far from the racist, anti-Mexican rhetoric—which is not a small thing—what could we expect from a Harris/Walz administration leading the U.S. government? Because one thing is certain: the challenges and opportunities in the bilateral relationship will continue and may even grow

The structural factors that increasingly unite our economies (trade, investments, remittances) will persist. The enormous shared challenges, like North American security, reclaiming territory lost to criminal organizations, managing the common border, regional migratory flows, and water distribution in border areas, will also remain.

More than twelve million Mexicans, born in Mexico, and another twenty-six million of Mexican descent, will continue to live there.

Others will join in the coming years. The hegemonic competition between China and the United States will intensify, and our country, located in North America, will remain part of that confrontation, even if we try to stay out of it.

If Kamala becomes president, it would be the first time in history that two women with a progressive vision lead the governments of Mexico and the United States. A true historical milestone. Synergies could emerge that have not yet occurred.

But what does Kamala think of Mexico? We don’t know for sure. Perhaps she does not have a well-developed view of our country. At least publicly, she has not gone beyond generalities, such as the importance of maintaining a solid and collaborative relationship between the two countries.

During her visit to Mexico in 2022, she emphasized the need to work together on issues like migration, economic development, security, and human rights to create conditions that reduce irregular migration. She also announced $4 billion in investments, mainly from the private sector, for Central American countries. It’s unclear how much of that plan has been fulfilled.

What we do know is that, according to official figures from the Department of Homeland Security, over the past four years, the United States has deported around 3.5 million undocumented migrants. It is expected that an administration led by Kamala Harris would continue and strengthen deportation programs for undocumented migrants, though she would do so without hate-filled rhetoric and without violating their human rights.

Harris has addressed drug trafficking and corruption in Mexico on several occasions, both as vice president, senator, and attorney general of California. She has always done so positively, to promote bilateral cooperation. She knows Mexico and Mexican officials, some of whom will be part of Claudia Sheinbaum's government.

As a senator, she voted against the USMCA, citing concerns about labor and environmental issues. If she wins the election, continuity with some adjustments in many of Biden's policies can be expected. But, undoubtedly, the most important question is what stance she would take in the review of the USMCA in 2026.

What would a hypothetical President Kamala say about the judicial reform if it is approved, and about the dismantling of autonomous bodies created to comply with NAFTA/USMCA?

BY MIGUEL RUIZ CABAÑAS
PROFESSOR AT TEC DE MONTERREY AND CAREER DIPLOMAT
@MIGUELRCABANAS
MIGUEL.RUIZCABANAS@TEC.MX