Mexico-US: Risks and Opportunities?

Mexico’s current situation presents enormous risks but also great opportunities. This is at least the perspective of a growing number of U.S. analysts, although there are considerable concerns regarding the approval of the Judicial Reform. There is agreement on the possibility—or reality—of a qualitative change in the relationship.

At the same time, there is a conviction that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has its own vision and will take full advantage of nearshoring, less for political conviction and more for economic pragmatism, commented Pamela Starr from the Monarch group.

In fact, the U.S. Department of State expressed its support on Tuesday for statements made by Ambassador Ken Salazar. "We are particularly observing the enactment of this law in light of our joint efforts to promote our economic competitiveness and integration. Ultimately, we will continue to engage with our Mexican colleagues regarding the statute and how it will be implemented," said spokesperson Matthew Miller.

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Among some specialists, there is uncertainty about the possibility that the reform consolidates what some define as changes to the Mexican legal framework that undermine "the spirit, if not the letter," of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The possibility that Mexico’s stance could lead to a renegotiation of the USMCA was raised by Kimberly Breier, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, during a Council of the Americas conference. Breier also pointed to a possible, if not probable, renegotiation of the security agreements between the two countries. The reforms, she noted, have fundamentally changed the relationship.

However, we will have to wait for months, not just until President Sheinbaum takes office but until there is a new administration in Washington in January. Still, the signals are not very encouraging.

On Tuesday, a report was presented in Washington on the relocation (nearshoring) of companies from Asia, particularly China, to Latin American countries geographically close to the U.S. Among the announced speakers were officials from the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Costa Rica.

No Mexican officials were present, though this could be attributed to the imminent government transition as well as a seeming indifference to investment promotion.

The presentation of the report "From Rhetoric to Reality" by the Atlantic Council was announced more than two weeks ago. It outlined measures—from legal frameworks to infrastructure—that, according to the authors, should be taken in the region, including Mexico and the U.S., to facilitate the arrival and development of companies seeking relocation.

The collection of considerations and warnings presents a troubled view of the relationship, but perhaps it’s just a matter of time and both countries learning to live with their changes.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE

Contenido publicado originalmente en El Heraldo de México