Just Released: 2024 NALEO Educational Fund’s Races to Watch

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund today unveiled its Election 2024 Races to Watch analysis ahead of the November presidential election. The analysis provides a comprehensive view of some of the most critical upcoming competitive congressional races as well as an overview of Latino candidates for Congress on the ballot this election.

“With less than a month left until election day, this analysis provides a bird’s eye view of congressional races that can tilt the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives in either direction,” said NALEO Educational Fund CEO Arturo Vargas. “The analysis also dives into Latino candidates vying for federal office nationwide and who have an opportunity to achieve new political milestones in the U.S. Senate.”

Latinos are running for Congress in 16 states, including in the traditional areas of Latino population concentration and regions such as the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Plains States, and the Deep South.

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Key Findings of NALEO Educational Fund’s Races to Watch Analysis Include:

U.S. Senate

The number of Latinos in the U.S. Senate could increase from five to seven. Of the five incumbents, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is the only one up for re-election and has good prospects of victory.

Two Latinos are in the highly competitive contests for the Senate. In Arizona, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is facing former television news anchor Kari Lake (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I).

In Ohio, business owner Bernie Moreno (R) is challenging incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D). If Gallego and Moreno prevail, they would be the first Latinos to represent their respective states in the U.S. Senate.

Latino candidates for U.S. Senate with more difficult races include the Florida contest, where former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) is challenging incumbent Senator Rick Scott (R); and Dr. Raul Garcia (R) is trying to unseat incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell (D) in the state of Washington.

U.S. House of Representatives

The number of Latinos in the U.S. House of Representatives could increase from 48 to 50. Of the 48 incumbent Latino U.S. Representatives, 43 are running for re-election, and 36 have excellent re-election prospects.

Latino incumbents with more difficult contests include U.S. Representatives Republican Juan Ciscomani (AZ-6), Republican Mike Garcia (CA-27), Democrat Yadira Caraveo (CO-8), Democrat Gabriel Vasquez (NM-2), Republican Anthony D’Esposito (NY-4), Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-5), and Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3). Both parties have targeted these races as critical for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Five Latino non-incumbents who have excellent chances to win their U.S. House contests include three from California: former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), running in the 16th Congressional District; State Assemblymember Luz Rivas (D), running in the 29th Congressional District; and former U.S. Rep. Gil Cisneros (D), running in the 31st Congressional District. Rivas is running for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Tony Cardenas (D), and Cisneros is running for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Grace Flores Napolitano (D). These Californians are likely to be joined in Congress by New Jersey State Senator Nellie Pou (D), running in the state’s 9th Congressional District, and Washington State Senator Emily Randall (D), running in the state’s 6th Congressional District.

Two Latinos are viable contenders in toss-up races to unseat incumbents. These include former State Assemblymember Rudy Salas (D), who is challenging U.S. Rep. David Valadao (R) in California’s 22nd Congressional District, and State Senator Tony Vargas (D), who is challenging U.S. Rep. Don Bacon (R) in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In both cases, these contests are a re-match of the districts’ 2022 contests, where the challengers came close to victory.

Impact of Latino Vote in Key Competitive Election 2024 Congressional Races

NALEO Educational Fund’s analysis also examines key competitive congressional races where the Latino vote could determine the outcome. This analysis highlights two U.S. Senate races and 16 U.S. House races, including the candidates, the margin of victory in the last election for the seats, and the Latino share of registered voters in the jurisdictions.

Early voting is already underway in some states, and Latinos are once again poised to play a decisive role in contests across the country. NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 17.5 million Latinos nationwide are expected to head to the polls in this election, representing a 6.5 percent increase from 2020 Latino turnout. More than one of every 10 voters (11.1 percent) this year will be Latino.