An anomalous campaign

The 2024 US presidential campaign seems to be developing outside of normal parameters. In a normal year, the economy would be the overwhelming concern. And it is one of the important issues. But, unlike other elections, it is not necessarily the main one and who knows if it will be the determining factor for the result. In that sense, the advantage would be for the Republican Donald Trump, since there is at least the perception that inflation and high prices are the result of the policies of President Joe Biden and, therefore, extended to his vice president, the now Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. It is true that, according to the macroeconomic numbers, the American situation is good, but the average citizen feels the price increases, the lack of cheap housing and expensive food in their pockets. And yet, it is only one of the important issues. Trump should have a comfortable advantage, but this is not the case. He seems to prefer to use fear, and has managed to introduce issues such as migration and the weakness of borders into the public debate, with stories that sometimes seem ridiculous about the “invasion” of undocumented immigrants. But there are those who believe him. Harris maintains that the economy is doing well and that this is reflected in reduced unemployment, in important possibilities for well-being, and of course she credits it to the policies developed by Biden after the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, it raises the spectre of an unbridled Trump, one who has promised to be a “dictator for a day” and to use the armed forces both to carry out mass arrests of undocumented migrants and to stop the “internal enemy,” as he defines all those who do not agree with him, especially in the federal bureaucracy. Trump also promises to reduce taxes for wealthy sectors to encourage investment, and accuses media and organizations that point out its possible negative effects of ignorance, from the Wall Street Journal to the weekly The Economist, the Bloomberg agency or the Financial Times newspaper. So far there does not seem to be a real advantage for any of them. Harris caught up with Trump after President Biden withdrew his candidacy and the Democratic National Convention in August. Trump has been campaigning for four years since he lost the Presidency in 2020, but he has not surpassed his audience either. The campaign, therefore, is a reflection of the almost halved division among Americans, neither one nor the other has been able to break away. Less than three weeks before the vote, the candidate is portrayed as an elderly demagogue, while Harris, who is sought to be held responsible for the Biden administration’s problems, seems to be enjoying the benefits of not being Trump. The virtual political tie is causing concern, as no one expects the Republican and his supporters to accept another defeat.

Nota publicada originalmente en El Heraldo de México