What would happen if the US elections end in a tie?

As the 2024 presidential elections in the United States approach, one of the least likely scenarios, but not impossible, is a tie in the Electoral College. While polls favor Donald Trump to some extent over Kamala Harris, the US electoral system allows, under certain conditions, that the main candidates end up with the same number of votes. This scenario could have significant implications for the United States and for its partners, such as Mexico. Analysis by CNN’s Zachary B. Wolf, Ethan Cohen and Renee Rigdon warns that while a tie is unlikely, it is a real possibility that must be considered given the current political circumstances. How does the Electoral College work? The Electoral College is the system by which the president of the United States is elected. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population, totaling 538 votes. The candidate who wins at least 270 electoral votes wins the election. In most states, the candidate who wins the majority of the popular votes in that state takes all of its electoral votes, except in Maine and Nebraska, which allocate votes by congressional districts. According to Thomas H. Neale’s 2017 report, The Electoral College: How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections, this system was designed to balance the interests of large and small states. However, its current structure allows for scenarios where, despite a small difference in the popular vote, the candidates end up tied in the Electoral College. Tie scenarios in 2024 270toWin, a site specializing in electoral analysis, has mathematically modeled three main scenarios in which a tie in the 2024 election could occur: 1. Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, but loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, resulting in a 269-269 tie. 2. Harris repeats Joe Biden’s results in 2020, but loses Georgia, Pennsylvania, and one vote from Nebraska’s 2nd District, which would also lead to a tie. 3. Trump wins all the states he won in 2020, but loses Wisconsin and there is a split in the electoral votes of Maine and Nebraska, which would produce another 269-269 tie. The Constitutional Solution: The 12th Amendment If there were a tie in the Electoral College, the 12th Amendment provides that the House of Representatives elects the president and the Senate the vice president. In the House, each state has one vote, and a majority of 26 votes is needed to elect the president. This process favors small states, which have equal power to large states, and currently benefits Republicans, who control most of the state delegations. The landmark case of a tie was in the 1800 election between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, who tied in the Electoral College due to a lack of coordination between the Democratic-Republican Party electors. After 36 rounds of voting in the House of Representatives, Jefferson was elected president. Would a tie depolarize the United States? The idea that a tie could depolarize the United States is tempting, but it is unlikely to be the case. Rather than reducing polarization, a tie in the Electoral College could increase political and social tensions, as it would call into question the legitimacy of the electoral process and could lead to protests on both sides. The possibility that Congress, rather than voters, decides the president could further alienate large sections of the population that are already politically divided. Historically, when electoral processes are prolonged or resolved in controversial ways, as in the 2000 election (Bush vs. Gore), confidence in the electoral system is weakened. A tie and a subsequent contingent election could have a similar effect, exacerbating polarization rather than mitigating it. Moreover, in a context where the media and social media play a crucial role in spreading information and opinions, a tie could intensify hate speech and conspiracy theories, making any attempt at depolarization even more difficult to achieve. The role of the Supreme Court in the event of a challenge If the election were to result in a tie or be challenged, the Supreme Court could intervene, as it did in 2000 with the Bush v. Gore case. The Court could review disputes over vote counts or the validity of results in key states, adding complexity and delays to the process. Given its current makeup, with a conservative majority, some experts suggest that its intervention could favor Trump if significant disputes were to occur. Chances of a Trump victory As the 2024 election approaches, several polls and political analyses suggest that Donald Trump has a slight lead over Kamala Harris, despite a virtual tie. According to statistical models, Trump has about a 55-60% chance of winn.

Nota publicada originalmente por Miguel Ángel Marmolejo en el Heraldo de México