The collapse of the US without migrants

Donald Trump has promised that if he wins the US presidency he will carry out the largest raid and deportation operation in US history. Many people do not believe it, but those who know him know that he is serious and that his team, including the nefarious Stephen Miller, is working on a project to deport 400 thousand undocumented immigrants a year.

If the absurd project is carried out, the most affected country would be Mexico, but the US economy would also collapse.

Some data: it is estimated that the Hispanic population in the US amounts to 60 million, of which 60% are Mexican or of Mexican origin, that is, 36 million. Of these, about 12 million are first-generation Mexicans. Of this universe, it is estimated that 5 million are undocumented, around 1 million “Dreamers.”

If Trump were to deport 400 thousand undocumented immigrants each year, about 50% could be Mexican. The Mexican economy would have to create 200 thousand more jobs each year to absorb the deportees. Mexican consulates would be overwhelmed in their protection work. The separation of families would be inevitable.

A second problem would be if the Trump government sought to have our country receive deportees from other countries that were not willing to receive them, such as Venezuelans, Cubans and Nicaraguans. It could use the disastrous “Stay in Mexico” as a legal precedent.

The Mexican government, already limited in its budgetary resources, would have to dedicate budget in the coming years to care for deportees and their families, as well as to reinforce the Mexican consulates, already without a budget, on the bone.

The costs for the US economy would be brutal. Two studies, one by the American Immigration Council and another by Timothy Snyder, point out their possible impact.

Snyder argues that the raids and deportations would be repressive and would change the morals and values of US society, as well as the rule of law. The legal battles in defense of human rights would be countless.

The American Immigration Council study estimates that deportation would have a devastating economic effect. The US GDP would decrease by about 5%, or one trillion dollars (close to the total annual bilateral trade) as in the Great Depression.

Since most undocumented people work in the agricultural and service sectors, such as cleaning and construction, food prices in the US would rise and construction, particularly in Texas, would almost completely stop. There would be no cleaning in hospitals and hotels.

The aging of the US population would accelerate and there would be problems in the future to pay pensions and medical services.

The US needs migrants, those undocumented people whom Trump attacks without economic or rational sense, but sows hatred, division and lies.

Nota publicada originalmente en el Heraldo de México