A warning of what may come

According to O’Neill, regardless of who wins in the United States, the two countries “will have to engage in difficult discussions and negotiations”

The complex nature of relations between the United States and Mexico raises concerns for the government of Claudia Sheinbaum and whoever is elected on November 5 in the neighboring country.

Regardless of who enters the White House next January, it is possible to expect that the relationship will go through at least a rocky period while both governments reach an understanding, although much will depend on who wins the US elections.

In general, Republican Donald Trump has been more vociferous, more inclined to bravado and to announce forceful measures than the Democrats, although candidate Kamala Harris has hinted at the possibility of tough positions.

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In an article published by Foreign Affairs magazine, Shannon O’Neill, vice president of the influential Council on Foreign Relations in New York, believes that “there is an opportunity - although limited - for a reset with Mexico, which could make both countries safer and more prosperous, instead of beset by crises and constantly at odds with each other.”

It would certainly be a desirable outcome. President Sheinbaum is expected to pursue a political agenda “based on her inclinations, her ambitions and her internal limitations,” but according to the specialist, “the United States can make it clear that there will be consequences if (Sheinbaum) continues down a path that is turning Mexico into a less reliable economic, commercial, security and democratic actor.” A change in the tone of the relationship, especially economic, would create a difficult situation.

Sheinbaum’s government would face obstacles that could limit its projects, from infrastructure to social programs, due to “economic headwinds.”

According to O’Neill, regardless of who wins in the United States, the two countries “will have to engage in difficult discussions and negotiations,” but with the provision that the US government “will undoubtedly harbor concerns about the future of trade, security, political stability in Mexico and the specter of China in the bilateral relationship.”

The change of government in the US may be decisive.

“So far, the administration (of President Joe) Biden has been quite lenient with the alleged violations of the T-MEC (Mexico-United States-Canada Trade Agreement), given the electoral importance of migration and the vital role of Mexico in limiting crossings at the southern border of the United States,” said the analyst.

At stake, ultimately, is the future of North American economic integration. The T-MEC will be reviewed in 2026, in the shadow of several developing disputes.

But it is worth remembering that a few years ago the Republicans, through Senator Marco Rubio, indicated that they were not concerned about the ideological inclination of a Mexican president, as long as he kept in mind that in order to be successful he needed to take into account American interests.

Nota publicada originalmente en El Heraldo de México

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