Trump, will he win again without winning?

The possibility that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote, but win the Electoral College again, and with it the presidency of the United States

The possibility that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote, but win the Electoral College again, and with it the presidency of the United States, now looms like a dark shadow over the Democrats.

According to the latest polls and the predictions of specialized analysts, the possibility that the former president and Republican presidential candidate will win the Electoral College is real.

Trump won the presidency in 2016 although he lost in the popular vote to Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. For analysts like Nate Silver, there is a 52% chance that the Republican will emerge victorious, even if a majority votes against him.

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It is not an accident. Republicans control a good part of the state legislatures, especially in the South and Midwest of the United States, where they have the support of the still predominant rural vote. In isolation, they would seem unimportant, but the sum of their votes in the Electoral College could be decisive.

The predictions are that Democrat Harris will win the popular vote, but the majority of Democratic voters are concentrated in cities and regions of the country such as the New England states, on the Pacific coast and parts of the Great Lakes region.

There are cities in pro-Republican states that vote mostly Democratic, but their concentration limits their impact.

Trump and the Republicans have managed to attract conservative, intensely religious, lower-middle-class, white populations, and to some extent some minority sectors, especially Hispanics, with a combination of messages about the economy, drug violence, a weakened border, and the supposed “invasion” of the country by migrants.

The Democratic coalition seems more blurred. In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to “assemble” one based on women, ethnic and religious minorities, and people with higher education, but this time it seems blurred. Harris seems to have problems strengthening her base of support and to some extent, according to analysts, she is unable to detach herself from the legacy of the Biden government.

Trump has managed to become the center of the election. With absurd, vulgar, and often false statements, he is in fact at the center of public debate. He can be described as a “showman,” as a demagogue, but his presence and his attacks against the Democratic formula, frequently intertwined with insults, seem to have an audience willing to receive them.

But at the same time he is showing signs of fatigue and his campaign does not seem entirely efficient.

A Democratic victory is also entirely possible, but as often happens, the militants of that party seem immersed in doubt and are publicly debating it, while Harris tries to use Trump’s outbursts to present him not only as an old man, but also as a dictator in the making, unworthy of being president.

Perhaps that is enough.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE

Contenido publicado originalmente en El Heraldo de México.