Pennsylvania holds a crucial role in U.S. elections

One of the most anticipated days in the world is approaching. On November 5, the most powerful country on the planet will elect a president. A few days before the elections, the outlook could not be more uncertain, with a race marked by a very close contest in which both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are tied in the latest polls. Because the United States uses an Electoral College system to define its president, the so-called “swing states” of Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina may ultimately determine the head of state, with the Hispanic community being highly relevant.

Within these swing states, there is one that is key: Pennsylvania. Both experts and politicians consider Pennsylvania to be the most decisive state in United States elections, as it provides 19 electoral votes, a figure that exceeds those of other swing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is considered a “predictor” state. Democrats have won this state in every presidential election since 1992, except in 2016, when Trump claimed victory by less than one percentage point. Biden reclaimed it for the Democrats in 2020 by just over one point, confirming how close the race is in this state.

Added to this is the fact that, in the last eight elections, the candidate who won Pennsylvania also won Michigan and Wisconsin.

These two states add 25 electoral votes to the total of 270 that a candidate needs to be elected crowned as president.

One in five residents in the United States is Latino. In 2023, the population of Hispanic origin in the United States exceeded 65 million people and is expected to reach 80 million within a decade.

Of this total, approximately 58% are Mexicans. Puerto Ricans, who make up about 9% of the country’s Hispanic population, constitute the second-largest Latin American community.

In this context, the insults of a comedian during a Trump campaign event last Sunday in New York, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” may lead more Puerto Ricans to the polls in favor of the Democrats, thus boosting a community that is historically characterized by high abstentionism.

The coin remains in the air. We’ll have to closely follow events in Pennsylvania, which promise to be one of history’s most closely contested elections. A small number of votes could decide the state’s and, consequently, the U.S. presidency’s outcome.

Mónica Laborda Sánchez

* PhD in International Relations and European Integration. Associate of the Mexican Council of International Affairs (COMEXI). Member of the Mexican Association of International Affairs (AMEI) and the Network of Europeanists in Mexico.

Lecturer, professor, and collaborator for various national and international media. Researcher at the University Institute of European Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.

Contenido publicado originalmente en El Heraldo de México.