EU: a toss-up

Por

Manuel López San Martín

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Publicado: 4/11/2024 · 12:32 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 4/11/2024 · 12:32 p.m. MX

Tomorrow is the election in the United States. Like never before, the coin is in the air. Anything can happen, anyone can win. The contest is very close. Due to its electoral system, there are states already announced, where it is known that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will obtain a sure victory, that is why the eyes have focused on seven, called “swing states”.

Whoever aspires to win the Presidency must add, at least, 270 of the 538 votes of the Electoral College. According to the polls, those seven states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia) are the ones that will tip the balance. Each one has a different value, because it represents a different number of votes. In total, the seven represent 93 Electoral College votes.

Although in terms of the national popular vote, Harris appears slightly ahead in the polls, in the seven key states, things are very close. According to the measurements, in Arizona, Trump is ahead by just 2.3%; and in Nevada, by 1.5%. In Wisconsin, the Democratic candidate is ahead by just .3% and in Michigan by just .8%. In Pennsylvania, the Republican candidate would be .5% ahead; in North Carolina, 1.5% ahead; and in Georgia, 2.6%. A toss-up.

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Although Trump appears slightly ahead, the differences, all, in those seven states, are within the margin of error. Is Mexico ready for what is to come? The central issues of the bilateral relationship are three: migration, security and trade. The first has been a historical headache and can only be resolved with regional solutions.

The second is electorally lucrative in the US, especially because Mexico has given plenty of arguments: 200 thousand murders in the previous six-year term south of the border; to the north, hundreds of thousands of deaths from fentanyl. The third is the economic support of our country; we are the main commercial partner of the largest economy in the world, neither of the two nations benefits from sabotaging the relationship.

On paper, Trump would be more harmful, perhaps because in his speech he seems tougher and threatens with more radical measures: more walls, more tariffs… but in reality, Harris probably represents a greater threat to the current government, because the Republican is more protectionist and cares more about what happens in his territory and cares little about what happens beyond his borders.

Kamala may become more involved, and a review of the USMCA with the weak and severely questioned legal framework, due to the reform of the Judicial Branch and the Constitutional Supremacy, could be more complex.

Many things are said during the campaign. It is the electoral effervescence where it seems that anything goes to win votes. Starting tomorrow Tuesday a new stage begins, that of real politics, beyond shouts and fireworks.

We will see if the Mexican government has done its homework and is prepared for what is coming, which is of reserved prognosis.

BY MANUEL LÓPEZ SAN MARTÍN

M.LOPEZSANMARTIN@GMAIL.COM

@MLOPEZSANMARTIN

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.

Manuel López San Martín