While there is confidence, it’s in the likelihood of conflict

Just a few hours before the start of an American election day that literally keeps the world in suspense, the result seems still up in the air and the hopes of the supporters of the two main candidates remain alive while political polarization sharpens.

At least that’s what the polls say, which over the last 60 days have reported a virtual tie between the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.

But while national polls are a useful tool in many ways, they are, as Republican political consultant Bruce Mehlman says, little better than a “Ouija board” at predicting outcomes, especially in a country where presidential elections are held simultaneously in 50 states and the popular vote does not directly elect the president.

To a large extent, the campaigns have been a duel of strategies, a house-to-house fight, especially in the swing states, the seven entities that hold 93 electoral votes and will likely determine which of the candidates will accumulate the at least 270 needed to win a majority in the Electoral College and the presidency.

The indecision is not a product of doubt, but of the virtual equality of forces between Democrats and Republicans, with two competing visions of the world and the nature of their country.

In a normal election, the economy would be the dominant issue, and according to the polls it is. But when you get down to the details, the biggest concerns are about abortion and migration, as symbols of the deepest cultural and identity debate that has taken place in decades.

In addition, the perception is that the economy is bad. Not because it is, the data in general are good, but many Americans do not believe it and resent inflation, high prices and the perception that things are bad.

And Trump, surprise! uses a method tested in American political-electoral culture: blaming migrants for the country’s internal problems and, if possible, other countries.

In a normal election, Trump would be the dominant candidate. He has a loyal base and his rival emerged only in August, after President Joe Biden gave in to pressure from his own party and chose to renounce reelection.

But that is not the case.

It is true that the outrageous formula used by Trump, that of a “showman” of those interested in being talked about, good or bad, but talked about, has allowed him to dominate the news cycles and in fact put Democratic rivals on the defensive or simply as reactive actors.

With a rhetoric that is frequently lying and racist, almost always insulting, and according to some historians literally with fascist overtones, Trump and his allies seem to have become the best reason to vote for Harris, at least in terms of traditional politics. Whether that will happen or not remains to be seen.

A few days ago it was estimated that no more than five percent of Americans still had doubts about who to vote for.

Both candidates seek to attract those who are part of that small group, and especially those who are in states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the swing states.

The truth is that this rhetoric and doubt has raised the temperature and polarization of the public debate, so much so that there is certainty that there will be post-electoral conflicts, at least legal ones. But there is also concern about the possibility of violence, especially from the right.

Of the five Latino senators, three have roots in Mexico.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE1

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.