A pivotal election

The scenarios are certainly catastrophic. They would be in line with a campaign that showed the division of almost half of the American population and the bitterness between the extremes of both groups

WASHINGTON.- The United States is embarking today on one of the most competitive elections in its history, and one that will probably define its future. Both the Democratic candidate and vice president, Kamala Harris, and the Republican and former president, Donald Trump, say they are confident of their victory. But truth be told, both face the possibility of defeat in very different ways. According to some sources, Harris believes she will win the election, but she worries about the reaction of Trump, who is expected to claim victory regardless of the results of the vote and challenge it legally, in days that they fear could lead to chaos, confusion and even violence.

According to James Carville, who was Bill Clinton’s chief campaign adviser, the biggest difference between the two is that if Trump wins by one point, the Democrats will accept it, but Harris will have to win comfortably for the Republicans to do so and even then it will be at least reluctantly.

Trump and his allies, for their part, seem committed to the game of victory at all costs and to the use of all possible legal tricks. Some say they are hoping that some states will not be able to certify their results and, therefore, their electoral votes, which would take the election to the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority could decide.

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The scenarios are certainly catastrophic. They would be in keeping with a campaign that showed the division almost down the middle of the American population and the bitterness between the extremes of both groups.

Whoever wins, the division will not end and whoever is elected will face the reality that half or almost half of their compatriots reject them.

What that means for the United States is a question that can only be answered with speculation. There has been talk of a national fracture and even the possibility of a civil war, but no one really knows what could happen.

The problem, or part of it, is that for better or worse Trump has dedicated himself to hardening the position of his followers, and announced his intention to even use the army to confront what he calls “the internal enemy,” as he defines his political adversaries, his critics, and even sectors of the bureaucracy of the federal government.

In that framework, it is almost easy to pronounce in favor of Harris, as guardian of order and American institutionality, as well as offering a government for all Americans. But it is also true that whoever it is, he will face conflict situations that perhaps no other president has faced since the post-civil war of 1861-65. The implications have international repercussions, beyond the protectionist, trade and immigration hardening measures, which to a greater or lesser degree either of the two could adopt.

What is certain is that the United States that emerges from this election will be different from that of just ten years ago.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE1

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.