The election in the United States: the coin is in the air

Por

Gabriela Cuevas Barrón

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Publicado: 5/11/2024 · 2:19 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 5/11/2024 · 2:19 p.m. MX

The United States goes to the polls after an intense electoral process marked by the attacks against Donald Trump and the Democratic replacement in which President Joe Biden - after a deep wear and tear - handed over the candidacy to Kamala Harris.

Although the presidential definition is by far the most visible, today (although millions of early votes have already been cast) 34 members of the Senate will also be elected and the 435 districts will vote for their congressmen; 11 states will define their governors, nearly 80 percent will renew their state congresses and some will vote for local judges, in addition to numerous policies that are up for consultation.

The Republican Party is optimistic about the election despite the fact that its candidate had a poor performance in the debate against Harris; Trump lost a valuable opportunity to link his opponent to the errors and costs borne by the Biden administration. For her part, Harris renews the hope that the Democratic Party had lost in Joe Biden’s reelection aspiration and brings with her significant support from women who sympathize with her narrative.

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The polls do not give any certainty about the result of the presidential election in the United States since its electoral system has a particular structure in which the popular vote will not necessarily define the winner. Each state has at least 3 representatives to the Electoral College and based on the size of its population, a greater number of electors will be assigned to it. The party that wins a majority — regardless of the margin it obtains — will take all the votes — except in Maine and Nebraska — to the Electoral College. The candidate that obtains at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes will win the presidency of the United States.

That is why the eyes will follow the results in those states that are considered “swing” or “hinge” states, that is, those that do not have a marked preference for a political party, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, although during these days it has been mentioned that Iowa could lean in favor of Harris.

For Mexico, the relationship with the United States is indispensable: we are united by 3 thousand kilometers of border, every minute 1.5 million dollars are exchanged through commercial flows, 1 in 4 jobs in the country is linked to it and millions of families live intertwined in both territories. In Mexico, there is a sense of nervousness because Donald Trump’s possible victory could translate into new tariffs, mass deportations, and the revision of the USMCA; some analysts even warn of a possible increase in armed conflicts due to his foreign policy. In contrast, there are few warnings in the event that Kamala Harris wins, as if the status quo were positive for our country.

The narrative in the American campaigns has little relation to reality: in trade matters, Trump renegotiated the USMCA and Harris voted against it as a senator; in the immigration field, Trump deported an average of 500 compatriots daily, in contrast to the Biden administration, which increased them by 40 percent; in terms of foreign and military policy, while Trump did not start new wars, young Americans demand the silence - or the timid voice - of the Biden-Harris administration in the face of the more than 42 thousand Palestinian deaths.

Although there are no clear predictions for the future US presidency, the reality is that Mexico has already negotiated with Trump and Harris. While there the coin is in the air, in Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum assures that she will maintain an institutional relationship without subordination with whomever the people of the United States choose.

BY GABRIELA CUEVAS BARRÓN

NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANT AND ADVISOR

@GABYCUEVAS

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.

Gabriela Cuevas Barrón