The Latino vote in the United States: More diverse and decisive than ever

Factors such as gender, religion, and education level play a crucial role in shaping voting trends within the Latino community

In an election marked by political tensions and deep social divisions, the Latino vote emerges as a critical factor that could redefine the U.S. electoral map. With over 65 million Latinos living in the country and growing diversity within this community, political parties face the challenge of connecting with an electorate that can no longer be viewed as a homogeneous bloc.

In this context, Thom Reilly, co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University (ASU), shared insightful analysis with Heraldo USA on the impact and dynamics of the Latino vote in this year’s electoral contest.

He emphasizes that while the Latino vote is often discussed as a “homogeneous bloc” the reality is far more complex. Differences between origin groups, such as Cuban Americans in Florida and Mexican Americans in Arizona and California, are significant.

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Moreover, in this electoral process, factors such as gender, religion, and education level are becoming crucial in shaping voting trends within the Latino community. Therefore, demographic shifts will be a critical focus in future electoral processes as the voter landscape changes.

Policies toward the Latino community

Reilly points out a clear contrast between the candidates’ proposals for the Mexican and Latino communities. “Harris’s campaign has sought inclusive recognition, highlighting the crucial trade relationship with Mexico”. Unity is a fundamental part of her discourse, and economically, the candidate announced measures to improve access to housing and increase job opportunities, particularly aimed at Latino men.

Conversely, Trump’s campaign maintains a markedly anti-immigrant tone, influencing a rightward shift in some of Joe Biden’s Democratic policies, particularly on immigration. In June 2024, Biden announced a rule limiting asylum eligibility for those crossing the border illegally, mainly due to pressure from Trump, who claimed there was no control at the Mexico border.

Trade relations and economic issues

By the third quarter of 2024, Mexico had solidified its position as the United States’ top trade partner, accounting for 15.9% of the country’s international trade. Despite this significant relationship, Reilly laments that neither Democrats nor Republicans have paid sufficient attention to this issue in their campaigns. “Topics like the economy and reproductive rights have dominated the discourse, sidelining the trade relationship with Mexico”, he explains.

On the other hand, it’s important to note that Donald Trump declared at his latest campaign rally that, if elected, he would impose a 25% increase in tariffs on imports from Mexico unless measures were implemented to reduce border crossings. Therefore, economic issues, migration, and relations with Mexico will be key if Trump wins the election.

A transforming Latino vote

According to the Pew Research Center, 36.2 million people of Latino origin could vote in the 2024 elections, making them the second-fastest-growing ethnic group in the U.S. electorate.

A trend toward diversification is becoming evident. “More Latinos are registering as independents, and we see a growing number considering voting for Republican candidates,” Reilly notes. Historically, Latinos have been viewed as Democratic voters; however, it’s important to emphasize that this group is diverse, with signs of stagnation and a slight shift toward Republicans.

The numbers reveal the trend: in 2012, 71% of Latino voters supported Barack Obama. This figure dropped to 65% for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and stood at 66% for Joe Biden in 2020. According to Reilly, this transformation is partly driven by economic concerns and a shift in the influence of the Catholic Church, which has adopted more conservative stances.

Campaign strategies

In a tightly contested campaign, attention to demographic groups has become necessary, prompting candidates to tailor their proposals to specific groups. Both parties have intensified efforts to capture the Latino vote.

Trump, for instance, has leveraged influencers to attract young Latino men without college degrees, replicating strategies used with young white men in similar situations. With the increasingly influential Latino community, this election could mark a turning point in U.S. political dynamics. “The coming of age of Latino voters is one reason why states like Arizona are shifting from Republican to Democratic”, Reilly concludes.

This election will showcase the weight of the Latino vote, underscoring the need for additional efforts to understand the electorate, address their needs and aspirations, and ensure they register with political affiliation and turn out to vote.

Por Patricia Tepozteco y Olivia Toledo.