Train Crashes

By the time you read this text, dear reader, two pairs of trains will be underway that, if they collide head-on, can -some- turn our country upside down, while the others could turn the world upside down. The constitutional crisis in Mexico and the elections in the US will make this a turbulent and worrying week.

Let’s start with the US elections, whose outcome -as you surely already know- really depends on the results in seven so-called swing states. Yes, even though we already know it, it is worth repeating: the “beacon of democracy” (sic and recontrasic, as the great Monsiváis would say) does not allow the direct election of its president. And if the predictions of the most serious pollsters are confirmed, we will have a political and legal dispute much worse than those of 2000 or 2020.

Donald Trump has not stopped questioning the results of four years ago, and many of his supporters start from the premise that this election was “stolen” from him. And under this premise, Trump has dedicated himself to sowing doubts everywhere about these votes, which practically guarantees a post-election conflict that could become much more violent than that of four years ago. Add to that the fact that there are also numerous complaints from civil rights organizations about possible acts of suppression of the minority vote, and we have the recipe for a perfect storm. A recent survey by the respected Pew Research Center www.pewresearch.org illustrates the above: nine out of ten Kamala Harris voters believe that the elections will be well managed, while only 57% of Trump supporters think the same, and only 38% of Trump supporters believe that early and mail-in votes will be counted properly.

And if, as is very likely, the election is judicialized and the conflict reaches the Supreme Court, only a fifth of all respondents fully trust that the supreme court will be politically neutral in its decisions.

We will have time to analyze the possible risks or benefits for Mexico of a Trump or Harris presidency, and it will be important to keep a cool head and remember that campaign rhetoric does not always translate into concrete actions, but what is undeniable is that a second Trump term would exacerbate the worst instincts of American nationalism and the most openly racist and xenophobic groups.

Meanwhile, in Mexico, the Supreme Court is preparing to analyze a project that seeks to invalidate a good part of the judicial reform, leaving only some aspects standing and would pose a constitutional crisis of incalculable magnitude.

It is not necessary to be a lawyer to realize that the conflict, more than constitutional, is political, and that the parties should remember that their responsibility goes far beyond what they believe is their respective mandate.

With what is coming to us with the election in the United States, we already have enough to worry about.

BY GABRIEL GUERRA CASTELLANOS

GGUERRA@GCYA.NET

@GABRIELGUERRAC

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.