USA: an unprecedented challenge

Washington, D.C.- I am writing this column around noon on Monday. The electoral atmosphere in the American capital, a bastion of the Democratic Party, can be described with three brushstrokes. On the one hand, there are the self-proclaimed “harmful optimists” who assure that Kamala Harris is closing with the latest trends in her favor; on the other, those I would call the “traumatized of 2016,” who see a scenario like that year coming, in which Trump loses the popular vote (VP) but wins in the Electoral College (EC); And finally, there are those who insist that “it’s a toss-up” and are resigned to the uncertainty because of how close the polls look in the states where the race is more even (within the margin of error, of course).

I would like to be one of the first, but I was already in 2016 (with Hillary Clinton); so now in 2024 I am rather halfway between the second and third (perhaps a little more third, in fact). And this could become one of those elections that are defined by a really tiny distance in the EC. The crucial state is Pennsylvania, whose 19 seats can make all the difference. If of the 7 states that look the most disputed, Trump were to take Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, he would accumulate 262 seats in the EC; if Harris were to win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, he would have 257. If he wins Pennsylvania, the result would be 281 to 257 (a margin of 24); If she did it, it would be 276 to 262 (a margin of 14).

The only election that has been decided by a smaller margin since 1964 (when the EC acquired its current composition of 538 seats) was the year 2000, when George W. Bush won against Al Gore by a difference of just 5 seats.

That the polls are so close and that the difference, in the end, could be so small, could well imply that on Tuesday night the projections are “too close to call” or that legal appeals are filed to request recounts, so that there is no way to “say” clearly who won. It is not a desirable scenario, of course, but given the circumstances it seems probable. The political-legal battle that would be unleashed as a result would be fierce.

Just as it happened in 2000, by the way, with the recount that was fought in Florida. Back then, just over a month passed between Election Day and the Supreme Court ruling that put an end to the dispute. The decision was highly controversial, but Al Gore immediately complied with it.

It is hard to imagine something similar happening this year, especially if the decision does not benefit Donald Trump. It is also hard to imagine that a court as largely conservative as the one in the United States today would rule against him (although the conservatism that controls the Court is not necessarily under Trump’s orders). Whatever the outcome, American democracy is about to face an unprecedented challenge: a second Trump presidency or a second time where he does not admit defeat.

BY CARLOS BRAVO REGIDOR

CONTRIBUTOR

@CARLOSBRAVOREG

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.