Donald Trump’s return will likely lead to strong backing for Netanyahu

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Marta Tawil

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Publicado: 7/11/2024 · 11:26 a.m. MX | Actualizado: 7/11/2024 · 11:26 a.m. MX

In his second term, Donald Trump will bring more instability to the world. In the Middle East, he will seek to make the Palestinian national question disappear.

Last August, he declared that, if he won the elections, Israel would receive all the necessary help to end the war on Gaza, after which (we assume) he will apply his magic formula: more signatures of peace agreements, designed for everything except to restore people or to vindicate their memory.

His entourage is encouraging him in this direction, starting with David M. Friedman, former US ambassador to Israel, who openly calls for annexing the West Bank and displacing Palestinians to the Negev desert. There is also his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who promotes the potential of the Gaza coast for real estate tourism.

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Since business is the main ambition of these figures and their boss, it is possible that Washington will seek to keep the Iranian front stable, so as not to complicate dealings with its Arab allies in the Gulf. On the Syrian-Lebanese front, Trump will most likely support Netanyahu in air, sea and land supervision over Lebanon, give the green light to Tel-Aviv’s strategy of attacking all legal and illegal crossing points between Lebanon and Syria, and pressure Beirut to sign some agreement with Tel-Aviv.

The result of the elections in the United States is inserted in two processes that feed back on each other: the gestation of a new world order and the reconfiguration of regional power in the Middle East.

As political scientist Zachary Lockman argues, Israel has helped maintain and re-establish American hegemony through its actions.

Indeed, it could be said that the considerable losses Israel has inflicted on Hamas and Hezbollah have left Joe Biden with the task of weakening Iran.

From a less comfortable perspective for Washington, the role now played by settlers within the Israeli military points to a broader process of disintegration of the ties between state and society in Israel; its translation will continue to recalibrate the calculations of various governments.

Trump’s victory reflected the reluctance of Kamala Harris and much of the Democratic establishment to any possibility of putting pressure on Israel.

For them, as for various officials and opinion leaders in the United States and other countries (including Mexico), it is perfectly consistent to express a certain “empathy” with the suffering of the Palestinians while considering the existence of an ethnic state in the 21st century to be something normal, not an aberration. Everyone will continue to talk about Israel and associate with pro-Israeli groups in search of some kind of status. Perhaps for them, as for the next US administration, this report suggests some material gains.

On the other hand, they will hardly have prestige and security in the face of what is to come.

BY MARTA TAWIL

COLMEX RESEARCHER

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.

Marta Tawil