Claudia Sheinbaum: Making Her Mark on the International Stage with a Wall to Overcome in North America

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Anabel Ortega

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Publicado: 26/11/2024 · 1:08 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 26/11/2024 · 1:08 p.m. MX

On October 1, 2024, history was made in Mexico when Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo was sworn in as the first female president of the United Mexican States, marking a decisive victory and establishing her legitimacy. Under the banner of the “Fourth Transformation,” which promises a change in Mexico’s regime and public life, is foreign policy set to be one of the most relevant points of her six-year program?

To the surprise of many and the gratitude of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President Sheinbaum started strong and firm. She did not invite King Felipe VI of Spain to her inauguration, even though he is the head of state of Spain, because he had not responded to the letter sent by AMLO requesting an apology for the atrocities committed during the conquest against Indigenous peoples. The letter had been ignored and was used to ridicule the Mexican president at the time. The newly elected president chose to invite a relevant international actor, albeit one who would not significantly impact the country’s commercial relations, given that Spain is Mexico’s second-largest trading partner. She chose to start strong with 105 diplomatic representatives as special guests at the Congress of the Union.

Dr. Sheinbaum understands the importance of Mexico in global politics; we play a crucial role due to our diplomatic relations, our geographic position, and, from a commercial standpoint, through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This role is also vulnerable because of issues such as migration, drug trafficking, and the new geoeconomic configuration that President Donald Trump aims to impose in the United States with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, which includes building a wall that affects bilateral relations.

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The problem is that the agendas of both nations do not align on issues such as migration, human rights, and gender issues. This additional challenge raises expectations, as today the U.S. leader will deal with a woman whom he believes should be “protected” because, in his view, she does not make good decisions. Could this be another wall in bilateral relations? The truth is that there is at least one area where they do align, at least at the rhetorical level: both believe that the sovereignty of the nation should be protected. For the United States, this means capturing jobs and relocating industries, such as the automotive sector, back to the country, while for Mexico, it means protecting energy sovereignty.

The foreign policy of the second floor of the Fourth Transformation finds itself in a complex and challenging context. The new administration inherits a diplomatic legacy marked by tensions and contradictions, alongside an ideological and pragmatic approach with a low international presence that characterized the government of its predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. This legacy will be accompanied by President Trump for the next four years, more than half of Sheinbaum’s term, during which the revision of the NAFTA treaty will be negotiated in 2026. This negotiation will involve Trump’s hard negotiating style, as he has already begun making threats of 25% tariffs on Mexican exports if the flow of migrants is not stopped and other issues from the first day of his mandate, shaping his “second floor” of “Make America Great Again.”

In this context in North America, what is President Sheinbaum’s role in multilateral affairs, armed conflicts, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Middle East, or regarding the Pact for the Future proposed by the most recent United Nations General Assembly?

We know that President Sheinbaum will attend the G20 Summit in Brazil in November. There, she will greet the heads of state from twenty nations, representatives from the European Union and the African Union, and the Spanish government. Will this forum be the perfect moment to define the first steps of Mexico’s foreign policy under the new president?

In the words of Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente, this administration seeks to achieve “a strong foreign policy that shines, one that reflects the great first government of Mexico’s first female president.” In the morning press conference on November 8, he mentioned that Sheinbaum’s visit has generated “great expectations,” and many meeting requests have been received, with pending agenda coordination for meetings with France, China, Canada, South Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom, all of which have requested an audience. However, “it will not be possible to meet with everyone,” as the President will return to Mexico for the celebrations of Revolution Day.

The G20 could be an opportunity for President Sheinbaum to establish a diversified, concrete, precise, and active foreign policy, with a unique and urgent focus on increasing Mexico’s participation in international forums and strengthening the country’s presence in multilateral organizations.

The second term of Donald Trump’s presidency entails actions against Mexico that he promised during his campaign, which will likely be implemented from day one, given the composition of the U.S. Congress, where he secured majorities in both chambers to make decisions. However, the United States also has a pragmatic vision for reconfiguring geopolitical and geoeconomic blocs. Mexico is part of its regional security and its main commercial ally. For Americans, “it’s the economy… first,” even with the wall and the drug trafficking issues.

If Sheinbaum’s goals are clear and consistent, she can step forward and strengthen Mexico’s role in the world, enabling her to fulfill her slogan: “Mexico deserves respect!”

Her success will depend not only on her ability to implement practical actions and changes but also on her skill in navigating the complexities of contemporary international relations, with a wall to break down in North America. The international community will be watching closely to see how these critical issues develop during her term; indeed, so will Donald Trump.

Anabel Ortega