What’s next in the world after its most important elections?

Por

Daniel Benet

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Publicado: 26/11/2024 · 12:59 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 26/11/2024 · 12:59 p.m. MX

To the dismay of a good number of people and the delight of, according to the results, many more, the US electoral contest was decided that same Tuesday, November 5. Donald Trump won the Electoral College votes, the popular vote, and each of the widely discussed swing states. Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which in 2020 had voted blue, turned red. The last three were even part of the “blue wall”, where in an irony the Republican knocked down the wall. Although there might be questions about why, there is no doubt about what is coming.

Trump focused his campaign on the issues most relevant to his potential voters. Among those who cast their vote, the priority was the state of the country’s economy, followed by the state of democracy. Positions on abortion and migration followed in importance in deciding the vote. He gained ground in practically all demographic sectors that had favored the Democrats, this turn to the right occurred in groups previously consolidated in the vote for the Democratic Party. Rural communities have a long history of voting for the Republican Party, however, in these elections, urban communities that tend to vote Democrat also shifted their vote to Trump. These cities and towns are not empty. The proportion of votes for him increased in counties with majority African American, Native American and Hispanic populations. With control of the Senate settled and the House of Representatives secure, the materialization of his campaign proposals will face few challenges in government.

It is well worth taking the next president of the United States at his word and not hoping that he was only giving tough campaign speeches. What can be expected in the world with his return to the White House?

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International war

•Israel-Palestine and Iran

Israel has long been a strategic ally of the United States, not only in this geographic region, but through Jewish communities around the world. Trump has declared that he sees the two-state solution, one of the proposals with the most international consensus for the in-depth and long-term resolution of this conflict, as increasingly complicated. The president-elect will continue to unconditionally support Israel; it is worth remembering that in 2019, he recognized Golan Heights, a territory long disputed with Syria, as part of Israel, making the United States the first and only member of the international community to do so.

In addition, Israel and the US share a similar assessment of Iran’s threat to the interests of both countries. In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, which had been agreed with China, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and Germany in 2015 with the aim of limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a reduction in international sanctions imposed on that country. Donald Trump was also the commander-in-chief of the US armed forces who ordered, without the approval of US Congress, the killing of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. He is expected to redouble his efforts to end Iran’s nuclear program and apply severe economic sanctions to that country. Just a few days after winning the election, the US Department of Justice charged three people with being involved in an Iranian plot to assassinate the Republican.

•Russia-Ukraine

In his first term as president, Donald Trump was highly critical of NATO spending, accusing US allies of relying excessively on its contributions. He also had public clashes with European heads of state such as Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. Trump has been critical of President Biden’s policies of giving large sums of money in support of Ukraine. During his campaign, he promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine during his first days in office, which was interpreted by analysts and President Zelensky as a move that could be advantageous for Putin. In the president-elect’s close circles, there were statements about forcing a ceasefire considering the current border lines on the battlefield. J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate and future vice president of the United States, went so far as to declare that Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can get and more material than the US can provide. This suggests that the situation could become complicated for Ukraine.

Trade conflicts

• China

The rival for American leadership on the world stage. Although Trump has expressed his admiration for its leader’s authoritarian style, he has also made clear his willingness to engage in a trade war. This is not new; during his presidency he imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines, solar panels and other Chinese goods that affected around 380 billion dollars of trade and raised taxes by around 80 billion dollars. Now the Republican has threatened to impose tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on all Chinese imports to the United States. The scenario, however, is not the same as four years ago. Although the Chinese economy now depends more on its exports and the imposition of tariffs would have a greater impact on it, the country is less dependent on the American market, since it has shifted its exports to Southeast Asia and Latin America. The US trade balance with China has seen a deficit reduction from around $347 billion in 2016 to around $280 billion in 2023.

In the Far East, there are also tensions in the South China Sea. Overlapping areas in the region are claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and of course China. Important reserves of resources such as oil, natural gas, and fisheries combine with the strategic location for commercial navigation and military positions of this region. It is expected that the United States will strengthen its military ties with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. Regarding Taiwan, outside the strong commercial relationship it maintains with the country, the United States is expected to continue with its “one China” foreign policy, which allows it to maintain diplomatic and commercial relations with the People’s Republic of China.

• Europe

Although it is not part of the dominant public political discourse on that continent, among other things because of the Republican’s lack of respect for European heads of state during his first term, a possible unification is expected in Europe as a response to a new Trump term, which could be veiledly welcomed by some member countries. This supposed optimism derives from the possibility that the next tenant of the White House will exert pressure on his allies that will allow them to advance on issues where the European Union has been divided, such as defense spending and the harmonization of its financial sectors. In contrast, with Trump there is the risk of trade conflicts such as those that occurred with steel and aluminum during his first term. It is also feared that the next US president could put the European Union between a rock and a hard place in terms of its trade relations with China, thwarting commercial associations between the old continent and the Asian giant, which is already indispensable for European economies.

Environment

Specialists fear that the Republican candidate’s second stint will be catastrophic for international environmental commitments. This is not only because the country is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, but it is also one of the largest sources of funding for the implementation of strategies to combat climate change. Trump has repeatedly spoken out about the threat that an international climate agenda poses to his country’s economic interests; a significant part of the Republican’s political base has branded global warming a hoax.

Information and media

Attention should be paid to Donald Trump’s belligerent attitude towards the media and his promises of revenge against those who have portrayed him in a negative light. Disinformation was identified as an important part of his campaign to shore up popular issues among his supporters (remember the case of migrants who, according to him, were eating the dogs and eating the cats). It is also important to be vigilant of the effect of business interests on the functioning of the fourth power and accountability during his presidency. It is worth mentioning the decisions by two newspapers: the L.A. Times and the Washington Post to withdraw the endorsement they had planned for Kamala Harris during the campaign. These decisions were made by the magnates who own these newspapers, Patrick Soon-Shiong and Jeff Bezos respectively. This led to the resignation of the editorials editor, Mariel Garza, in the first and the cancellation of around 250 thousand subscriptions for the second.

The international community had plenty of time to prepare for this political scenario, we will have to see who did it and who benefits from this in the future.

By Daniel Ernesto Benet

@23gradosnorte

Editor Heraldo USA

Daniel Benet