Notes of War

Life has its twists and turns. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the great project of neoliberalism, and its greatest champion, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, are now defended and promoted by the government, which is constructing the figurative second floor of the Fourth Transformation. Thus, a circle is drawn, beginning with Salinas, continuing with López Obrador, and now Sheinbaum, to consolidate the North American integration project.

When President Carlos Salinas went on a work trip to Europe in the late 1980s to explore new markets and investments, he found that the fall of the Berlin Wall—and, thus, the Iron Curtain—had completely shifted Europe’s priorities.

Beyond Spain, which has always been interested in and eager for connections with the New World, the central and medium-sized European powers were focused on integrating—or absorbing, in Germany’s case—their eastern neighbors, eager to experience the benefits of capitalism and liberal democracy.

We can discuss another day whether those benefits turned out to be sweet or bitter for many of those nations. Still, the fact remains that at that moment, Western Europe was too preoccupied with the challenges and immense costs of incorporating its new friends, preventing a chaotic disintegration of the Soviet Union, and figuring out how to finance all of it. Thus, for Mexico and Latin America, there needed to be more time and less attention.

In this context, Salinas, with remarkable foresight, decided to revive an idea that seemed nearly impossible at the time: a free trade agreement with the United States. Canada soon joined the project, and after arduous negotiations and efforts to convince many skeptics, NAFTA was signed. Its successor, the USMCA, governs trade and economic integration in North America today.

The logic of North American free trade seems so solid that the future is set in stone. If the idea could overcome left-wing populism, entrenched U.S. interests, Donald Trump’s presidency, and a regime change in Mexico, nothing could affect it.

But apparently, it can: the rebooted version of Donald Trump heralds stormy times and significant changes for the region, given his declared intention to conduct U.S. relations using tariffs and border pressures as his primary tools. Not even the fact that the USMCA is “his” treaty—his baby—makes it safe, as Trump has never encountered an agreement he couldn’t break or bend to get what he wants. In his zero-sum vision, Trump seeks to reduce trade deficits while gaining influence and power.

Eight years ago, when he first entered the White House, Trump flirted with the idea of a deal that excluded Canada, such was his dislike for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. At the time, Mexico advocated for Canada’s inclusion. Today, ironically, Canada is leaning toward excluding Mexico from a new deal. It doesn’t matter whether this is out of conviction or an attempt to curry favor with Trump; they have made their position clear.

Observing the reactions in Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, one must wonder whether the three countries are equally committed to this North American project or if, on the contrary, it’s time to start thinking about the U.S. as Mexico’s true partner in the region.