FROM OUTSIDE: A dilemma for Trump

Por

José Carreño Figueras

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Publicado: 17/12/2024 · 3:18 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 17/12/2024 · 3:18 p.m. MX

If words compel action, when President Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the United States, he will have to raise tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and several other countries; close the borders with Mexico and Canada; deport millions of migrants; and dismantle the “deep state,” as he refers to the professional civil service (bureaucracy).

However, it is still uncertain whether he will accomplish this or can do so.

It is not impossible. Although it would be lengthy, complicated, and costly, these measures could be implemented.

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According to a recent report from Politico.com, this would involve, for instance, dismantling the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration, Treasury Department economists, Census Bureau demographers, and personnel from the Departments of Education and Energy.

During his first term, the president-elect made gestures toward drastically reducing the U.S. military presence abroad, suggesting a possible redistribution that leaves allies more vulnerable to Russian and Chinese aggression.

Additionally, appointing cabinet officials with no expertise in their fields, like RFK (Robert F. Kennedy) Jr., and promising to clean house in the bureaucratic state foretell a future where experts are expelled from government, the report added.

He could also begin mass deportations of migrants, as he promised and as figures like his deputy chief of staff, Steve Miller, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott advocate.

But beyond legal immigrants, undocumented workers make up 25 percent of the agricultural workforce, 17 percent of all construction workers, and 19 percent of maintenance workers.

A Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) study concluded that Trump’s proposed deportation program would reduce GDP by as much as 7 percent by 2028, increase unemployment rates, and drive inflation higher.

Similarly, import tariffs would negatively impact the U.S. economy, with potential GDP losses of up to 7% by 2028 and immediate spikes in inflation rates.

However, these measures are possible if Trump is willing to bear the costs of fulfilling threats or leaving promises partially unfulfilled.

A few layoffs and thousands of deportations could present triumphant images to the American public and might even be portrayed as keeping promises. Deporting migrants who are detained or convicted of crimes is relatively easy and, in fact, readily available.

The second phase, however, involves the costs of locating, identifying, detaining, feeding, and sending back hundreds of thousands—perhaps millions—of people, as well as the losses in industries vital to American welfare and the economy.

Let me know if you would like any adjustments or further refinements!

José Carreño Figueras