FROM THE OUTSIDE: The chaos ahead...

2025 appears marked by conflict, carrying repercussions for both the world and Mexico.

At least, that is the prevailing impression after the 2024 U.S. election.

The annual report from Crisis Group, which focuses on conflict analysis, cautions that during tumultuous times, “the anticipated return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to the White House may create further upheaval. However, how does a disruptor navigate a world that is already in disarray?”

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Donald Trump retira a EEUU del Consejo de Derechos Humanos de la ONU Foto: The White House

Donald Trump firma retiro de Estados Unidos del Consejo de Derechos Humanos de la ONU

Una serie de órdenes ejecutivas fueron firmadas por Donald Trump para retirar a EEUU de la ONU, en específico del Consejo de los Derechos Humanos

This is a crucial question without a straightforward answer, as it relies on the behavior of an individual deemed unpredictable, who is anticipated to challenge the political norms of the U.S. that have been in place for the last century.

During his electoral campaign, Trump and his team emphasized “tariffs, improving relations with foreign dictators, distancing from NATO, and dismantling federal agencies as key themes,” historian Joshua Zeitz observed. “This campaign had a clear vision for the world it sought to create, garnering the support of nearly 50 percent of voters,” he added.

While the “American century” certainly wasn’t a cure-all for either the U.S. or the globe, it did establish important frameworks for global interactions and institutions.

In the process—and not coincidentally—it secured the global economic, political, and cultural dominance of the United States. However, this sometimes came at the expense of its citizens domestically and was often enforced through international violence.

However, that world is fading. The current geopolitical environment resembles 19th-century Europe, but with more intensity, as many regional actors are eager to exploit the gaps left by the hegemon. Trump does not offer stability; instead, he presents the possibility of exploiting the disorder resulting from the abandonment of established U.S. policy.

Consequently, concerns emerge regarding his actions in the Middle East, particularly about Israel and the consequences of a multifront conflict that has led to significant developments, including the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria by Islamist groups and the decline of Iran’s global influence.

“In Asia, where China is vying with the United States and its allies for dominance, flashpoints in the South China Sea, the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula are becoming increasingly unstable. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems, according to President Vladimir Putin’s threats, to be part of a conflict aimed at revising post-Cold War agreements, which risks escalating into a wider confrontation in Europe.”

In conclusion, due to space limitations, Trump’s verbal assaults on Canada and Mexico—America’s key trading partners—over migration, drug trafficking, and security concerns foster instability and distrust at the borders.