FROM THE OUTSIDE: Mexico and the US: Agreeing to Disagree

Eight years ago, former Republican Senator Marco Rubio stated that his country was not concerned about the ideology of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who was then viewed as the likely winner of Mexico’s presidential election.

Rubio suggested that AMLO could act freely if he recognized that to be an effective leader, he must consider the interests of the United States.

Rubio is now the Secretary of State appointed by President-elect Donald Trump and is part of a team that, according to the Crisis Group, “has Mexico in its sights.”

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But what does that signify? This is open to interpretation—not due to a strong relationship, which remains complex even during favorable moments, nor because the two governments make a notable effort to conceal their trade disputes or political divergences.

This situation stems from the Trump phenomenon and his erratic negotiation style.

It remains unclear how much his comments regarding Mexico are meant to apply pressure or sway the upcoming negotiations.

Experts indicate that it is still uncertain whether Donald Trump can or intends to fulfill his campaign promises, such as deporting millions of immigrants, imposing punitive tariffs on U.S. allies, or dismantling the ranks of public administration professionals. This includes doctors and researchers at the NIH and FDA, economists at the Treasury Department, demographers at the Census Bureau, and policy experts from the Departments of Education and Energy.

However, Trump appears to relish being unpredictable when the world craves certainty.

The truth is that despite all the pessimistic predictions about the bilateral relationship, Rubio’s remark remains relevant and valid.

Recently, Tony Payan, the capable director of Rice University’s Mexico Center, indicated in an “X” message that as Mexico’s checks and balances deteriorate, many Mexicans perceive that Washington under #Trump will act as a counterbalance to the government of @ClaudiaSheinbaum.

“That is true to some extent: as long as Sheinbaum complies with his requests regarding #immigration, #drugs, and #China, he won’t be concerned about Mexico’s democratic collapse.”

The key idea, nonetheless, resides in the nuances.

For many years, the primary concern of the United States has been to prevent instability in Mexico. This concern is not driven by a noble commitment to democracy but by a pragmatic interest in stopping significant migration northward.

Movement is expected, with thousands of initial deportations anticipated, but neither country desires to witness further decline.