FROM THE OUTSIDE: This is just the beginning

Por

José Carreño Figueras

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Publicado: 22/1/2025 · 6:55 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 22/1/2025 · 6:55 p.m. MX

President Donald Trump and his allies and followers may say whatever they please, but some policies the president seeks to implement could create more problems than solutions.

Indeed, he wouldn’t be the first populist leader to pave a road to the precipice with good intentions.

Without delving into the human or legal aspects of the measure, the fact remains that, according to experts, the deportation of undocumented migrants as currently envisioned is a net negative for the U.S. economy.

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Based on the roughly outlined plans, the Trump administration could remove one million people this year and up to five million during the four years of his newly begun term.

“That’s a problem for the economy because the labor market operates at full employment. Eliminating millions of existing workers (who are also consumers and taxpayers) while reducing immigration will shrink the U.S. labor force, driving up wages, business costs, and consumer prices, reducing the productive capacity of the economy, and widening the deficit,” said Ian Bremmer, director of the analysis firm Eurasia Group.

Increasing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China—currently the U.S.’s top trading partners—could also have negative effects.

According to a study by the Petersen Institute of International Economy (PIIE), Trump’s tariffs would harm all the economies involved, starting with the U.S.

Warwick J. McKibbin of the Australian National University and Marcus Noland of the PIIE noted that “a 25% U.S. tariff against Mexico and Canada would slow economic growth and increase inflation in all three countries.” By 2028, the end of Trump’s second administration, the actual U.S. GDP would be about $200 billion lower than it would have been without the tariffs.

In the case of China, the additional 10% tariff would cost the U.S. economy $55 billion.

Some countries are likely to yield to Trump’s demands, and the big question is how far they’re willing to go to avoid such high tariffs that would effectively exclude them from the U.S. market.

For instance, Bremmer suggested that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “will probably offer enough concessions to avoid the 25% tariffs.”

However, other countries lack the political capacity or room to placate Trump. Some, like Canada, may feel compelled to retaliate with their measures, raising the risk of an escalation cycle and a broader trade war that could plunge the U.S.—and the world—into a recession.

And this is just the beginning.

José Carreño Figueras