FROM THE OUTSIDE | Mexico facing the world

Por

José Carreño Figueras

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Publicado: 13/2/2025 · 1:12 p.m. MX | Actualizado: 13/2/2025 · 1:12 p.m. MX

Mexico will be the country most affected by Donald Trump’s administration’s measures regarding migration, tariffs, and security. These issues are central to the policies he will implement to achieve his most immediate objectives.

This assertion is found in the daunting and pessimistic report titled “Challenges for Mexico’s Foreign Policy at the Beginning of Trump’s New Era,” prepared by Grupo México en el Mundo, a group of nearly twenty of the most distinguished Mexican specialists in the field.

The authors describe a situation of enormous difficulty for Mexico, not only due to the aggressiveness of the Trump administration and its supporters but also because of omissions and absences in the rest of the world, stemming from the relative weakness of the Mexican regime in economic and political terms.

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President Claudia Sheinbaum faces the challenge of addressing her predecessor’s legacy: “The first step is to confront the erasure of Mexico’s presence in the world, which stemmed from former President López Obrador’s choice to downplay foreign policy.”

According to the document, the immediate outlook for U.S.-Mexico relations appears bleak. This period is marked by political and economic challenges associated with the Trump administration, including threats of mass deportations of undocumented migrants, the implementation of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian exports, security measures along the border and throughout the country due to the rising presence of drug cartels in Mexican territory, and the review (renegotiation) of the USMCA in 2026. The Trump administration seems intent on prioritizing industrial production within the United States to achieve its “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) objective.

The report adds that this comes at a crucial time for Mexico, as the government grapples with several economic constraints stemming from the precarious circumstances under which it took office. These limitations have resulted in cuts to investments in health, education, and infrastructure. Simultaneously, the country is facing a surge of violence that, although clearly being addressed, meets resistance from certain sectors within the political apparatus of the government itself regarding changes to the “hugs, not bullets” strategy.

In this context, the report notes that for decades, questions have been raised about whether Mexico has the institutional capacity to defend its interests abroad: “To begin with, we should ask whether there is a clear definition of the Mexican government’s foreign policy objectives, whether they are prioritized in any way, whether there is a strategy to achieve them and within what timeframe, and which government agencies are responsible for executing them.”

The response is quite pessimistic.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the most obvious institution for defending Mexican interests abroad, yet its budget continues to shrink.

José Carreño Figueras