The Covarrubias-Heraldo Media Group Survey Was the Most Accurate in Predicting Claudia Sheinbaum's Lead in the Elections

The Quick Count of the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) carried out by the National Electoral Institute (INE) has captured a total of 162,517 out of 170,648 tally sheets as of 7:30 AM on June 4th, representing 95.23% of the votes cast on June 2nd.

Based on these results, Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the coalition formed by Morena, PT, and PVEM parties, emerges as the winner of the electoral day, securing a total of 33,135,080 votes. This result represents 59.35% of the votes cast during the elections, consolidating her leadership in electoral preference with a 31-point lead.

In this regard, the survey closest to the official results was conducted by Covarrubias and published by El Heraldo de México, which gave the Morena candidate a 32-point lead over her primary opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez. In contrast, the Massive Caller survey, which predicted a difference of only two points in favor of the coalition candidate formed by PAN, PRI, and PRD, was significantly off the final result, as it predicted a two-point lead above the current virtual winner.

Sheinbaum's victory reflects voters' majority support for her political proposal and the accuracy of certain polls in anticipating the electoral outcome. It is worth noting that the Covarrubias-HMG survey was conducted over six days, from May 18 to May 24, and published on May 28.

We Were Always Right

Regarding this recognition of the Covarrubias and El Heraldo de México, pollster Andrés Levy, director of Covarrubias y Asociados, indicated that the sampling method, although heavily criticized, was correct, as reflected in the survey's accurate results.

Speaking about the methodology applied for conducting the survey, he said it was done through face-to-face interviews in households, interviewing one person per household, and using mobile devices to capture the information: "We always maintained that this was the correct methodology for this type of survey."

He noted that "there was always a clear winner from the first surveys."