Mexican Economy Contracts

The Mexican economy reported two consecutive months of decline, impacted by the downturn in secondary activities (industry, manufacturing, and construction), according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which provides early estimates three weeks after the evolution of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), revealed that in August, the Mexican economy contracted by 0.3 percent, while in September, it continued to decline by 0.1 percent, both on a monthly comparison.

By economic sectors, secondary activities fell by 0.5 percent in the eighth month of the year and decreased by 0.1 percent in the ninth month.

As for tertiary activities (commerce, services, and tourism), they grew by 0.3 percent in August but fell by 0.2 percent in September, both on a monthly basis.

Regarding annual results, the IOAE recorded a 1.2 percent increase in August, showing signs of a slowdown in September with a growth of 0.5 percent. Thus, secondary activities declined by 0.3 percent in August on an annual basis and fell by 0.5 percent in September, while tertiary activities grew by 2.2 percent in August and had a smaller increase of 0.9 percent in September.

In this regard, Gabriela Siller Pagaza, director of financial economic analysis at Banco Base, explained that according to the IOAE results, with the monthly declines in August and September, even with the 0.58 percent growth recorded in July, this would result in a quarterly GDP growth of 0.72 percent and an annual increase of 0.92 percent from July to September, based on seasonally adjusted figures.

Additionally, the specialist indicated that in the first nine months of the year, the GDP would show a cumulative growth of 1.22 percent, although she noted that it is important to remember that the IOAE figures tend to be significantly revised.

Nota publicada originalmente en el Heraldo de México