Mexico and the U.S. must find practical accommodations—purely out of mutual convenience

Por

José Carreño

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Publicado: 7/11/2024 · 11:53 a.m. MX | Actualizado: 7/11/2024 · 11:53 a.m. MX

Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential elections in the United States poses a real problem for the Mexican government. It is not that Mexico’s importance for the United States has diminished. Geopolitically and economically, it is a country that the American power considers and wants in its orbit both for its regional project and for its specific strategic needs.

Only Canada, a country with six thousand kilometers of border with the United States, has longer borders than Mexico, with half that. But unlike the United States, Mexico has three times the population, a potentially sizable audience among the Latino minority, and is the point of convergence for some of the greatest American challenges.

The point is simple. The two countries need accommodation, not so much out of affection or sympathy, which perhaps should exist; nor because of political affinities that frequently clash, but simply and plainly out of convenience.

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The United States needs a reliable partner in terms of security, supply, and economic production. Mexico needs the American market for its development and for survival, if you will.

The United States, for better or worse, is a reality in the social, economic, and political life of Mexico; other regions of the world, perhaps more emotionally or ideologically close to the country or its government, are for the moment entelechies or realities too far away.

Worse still, it is a nation that faces a multiplicity of problems in what was once an uncontested hegemony. Now, there is a growing impression that it cannot and does not want to tolerate much dissent. The web of internal provisions to confront some external enemies can become a complicated series of traps in any relationship with them.

The fact is that two of the main priorities of the Trump administration are related to Mexico: trade and migration.

In the first case, a central issue is the trade relationship with China, and whether Mexico likes it or not, it is an important part of the equation. Issues such as energy, such as genetically modified corn, will be of greater importance to the Trump administration than to Joe Biden’s.

Trump negotiated the current Mexico-United States-Canada treaty (T-MEC). It is feasible that he seeks to review and modify it, but not to end it, and that opens a door for him from the Mexican government.

In the second case, migration is synonymous here with issues of border security and drug trafficking. It is no secret that Republicans have even expressed intentions to send soldiers to Mexico to carry out attacks against drug cartels, and that Trump himself wants to restart his border wall. It’s not going to be an easy situation: Trump not only won the electoral vote, but also a possible majority of the popular vote, control of the Senate and, barring surprises, a large minority in the lower house. It’s no small thing: he feels vindicated and his party strengthened.

BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS

CONTRIBUTOR

JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM

@CARRENOJOSE1

Content originally published in spanish in El Heraldo de México.

José Carreño