COP 28: Bridging the Climate Gap

For nearly 30 years, the global Climate Conferences, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have convened to address the escalating planetary temperatures threatening our world. These events, often misunderstood or overlooked by the public, have gained prominence recently as the consequences of climate change have become unmistakably evident. Nevertheless, the intricacies of climate change negotiations, coupled with the specialized language used by experts and negotiators, present challenges in conveying their significance to a broader audience.

COP28, currently underway in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, gathers around 100,000 delegates representing governments, businesses, NGOs, indigenous communities, and youth. At its core, this conference revolves around the pressing choice facing humanity: either we embark on a path to reduce carbon emissions stemming from fossil fuel consumption (mitigation), or we invest in adapting societies to the increasingly costly impacts of climate change (adaptation) and compensate countries that have already suffered irreversible damage from these impacts (loss and damage), despite not being significant contributors to historic emissions.

Beneath this agenda lies the historical inequity ingrained in a capitalist system heavily reliant on fossil fuels for perpetual economic growth. Developed nations bear the responsibility for the bulk of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere, which persists for decades. Meanwhile, emerging economies like India and China assert their right to development by exploiting highly polluting fossil fuels such as coal. Least developed countries, burdened by inequality and poverty, lack the resources to cope with climate disasters.

COP28 can be distilled into a negotiation between the Global North, representing oil, coal, and gas producers, and the Global South. The former advocates for expanding fossil fuel production and consumption, banking on the potential of technological innovations to maintain the status quo, albeit with increased use of renewables.

Conversely, the Global South seeks a fundamental transformation of the global financial system to redirect more resources from the Global North to enhance their capacity to combat climate impacts, whether through adaptation or compensation for loss and damage. Notably, the slower the world’s progress in limiting fossil fuel proliferation, the greater the financial investments required for adaptation and loss and damage. In this zero-sum game, nobody truly wins, as the Global North’s economic gains will ultimately support the Global South’s efforts to adapt to a hotter world.

This COP takes place against the backdrop of sobering reports, revealing that we are not on course to limit global temperature increases to below 1.5°C relative to the pre-Industrial era. The Paris Agreement of 2015 set this target, but despite notable strides in renewable energy adoption, the world is heading toward a temperature rise of 2.5-2.9°C by the century’s end. While these may seem like small increments, science warns that beyond 1.5°C, we risk uncertain cascading effects on biodiversity, pervasive water scarcity, drought, and global climate patterns.

The first gap in mitigation is compounded by another concerning gap in climate finance. As global temperatures rise, all nations face climate impacts like hurricanes, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and biodiversity loss. However, the most vulnerable are those in the least developed countries, small island states, and marginalized communities in both developed and developing nations. Unfortunately, the financial system, from multilateral development banks to public and private institutions, is ill-equipped to fund these projects, which have been sidelined in favor of mitigation. The greater the mitigation shortfall, the more substantial the financial requirements for both adaptation and loss and damage.

From this perspective, the critical issue that could break this catch-22 dilemma is halting the proliferation of fossil fuel consumption and rapidly reducing it. This is crucial to avert catastrophic climate impacts that threaten life as we know it. Criticism surrounds COP28 for taking place in a petrostate like the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s major oil and gas producers, with some viewing it as a greenwashing attempt.

However, others see it as an opportunity to confront the elephant in the room: the need to transition away from fossil fuels by pressuring petrostates and oil companies to increase investments in clean energy sources and develop a transition plan to avoid overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal.

While fossil fuels will remain part of the global economy for decades, carbon capture and storage technologies offer a path forward, favored by fossil fuel producers to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Unless there is a consensus to sign a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, financial resources required for adaptation and loss and damage will surge in the foreseeable future. We hope that COP28 marks the beginning of a new negotiation where we tackle the central gap in the climate agenda head-on.