The Border, Migration, and the U.S. Elections

On Thursday the 12th, CIDE and the University of Arizona organized a seminar on the upcoming U.S. elections. Academics and diplomats participated to discuss the impact of the situation at the border and migration, topics addressed by candidates Harris and Trump in their debate on September 10.

Professor Robert Shapiro, an expert in U.S. public opinion, pointed out that in surveys, migration and border issues rank among the top three priorities for voters, along with the economy and inflation. He said Kamala Harris is vulnerable on immigration and border issues, given the general dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of them. However, these may not be decisive due to the large and growing differences of opinion among the electorate, depending on whether they are Republican, Democrat, or Independent.

According to Dr. Shapiro's analysis, about 78% of Republicans think the immigration problem is crucial, and 76% believe the border is out of control. Democrats consider them less relevant and give more importance to issues like abortion and the preservation of democracy.

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An increasing percentage of Americans believe migration to the U.S. should decrease. This view has grown since 2021, while the percentage in favor of regularizing undocumented immigrants has declined. Around 56% of Republicans think undocumented immigrants should be deported.

The debate over migration and the border has shifted toward more conservative positions, opposing regularization, temporary migration, and asylum. Democrats have moved closer to Republican positions.

The election will be decided by the votes of seven swing states, including Arizona, and the importance of migration and the border may not be decisive. It will depend on other issues such as the economy and the participation and voting of Independents and young people.

In the debate between Harris and Trump, there were two proposals. Harris said she would push the border security law negotiated between Democrats and Republicans at the end of 2023, rejected by Trump-aligned Republicans. Harris accused Trump of sabotaging it to politicize the issue and avoid finding solutions.

She also supported considering "legal channels" towards residency and citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Trump insisted on his proposal for mass raids and deportations, without acknowledging their contribution to the U.S. economy.

He accused them of being criminals and "killing and eating pets, dogs, and cats" in cities like Springfield, Ohio, a claim immediately debunked by the moderators and later ridiculed on social media.
Neither candidate mentioned Mexico, the country most affected by the proposed measures.

BY MARTHA BÁRCENA
EMINENT AMBASSADOR
@MARTHA_BARCENA

Contenido publicado originalmente en El Heraldo de México.