FROM THE OUTSIDE: New ambassador: a tense relationship

Por

José Carreño Figueras

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Publicado: 13/12/2024 · 10:20 a.m. MX | Actualizado: 13/12/2024 · 10:20 a.m. MX

When the virtual president-elect, Donald Trump, announced on Tuesday night that he had decided to appoint Ron Johnson as the United States ambassador to Mexico, there was a dual reaction: a sigh of relief and concern over the nominee’s background.

The relief came after the alarm was sparked by rumors suggesting the position might go to Kari Lake, the defeated Republican Senate candidate from Arizona, known for her far-right activism and extreme Trumpian nationalism.

In that sense, Johnson’s nomination felt like dodging a bullet. However, the relief was short-lived. Johnson is a former military officer with a 30-year career in the U.S. Armed Forces, including service with the elite “Green Berets.” He also worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and served as ambassador to El Salvador during Trump’s first administration.

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Johnson is a specialist in strategic affairs, according to his biography. He is undoubtedly a trusted confidant of Trump and likely the upcoming Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

This appointment might have a positive angle: there is no room for illusions or misinterpretations. While the outgoing ambassador, Ken Salazar, is a politician, Johnson’s background is that of a soldier and intelligence agent. Just as Salazar sought compromises but ultimately clashed with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government, Johnson will likely come prepared for confrontation.

Trump’s policies on migration, border security, counter-narcotics efforts, and trade conditionalities will undoubtedly dominate the agenda during Johnson’s tenure.

Some already consider that he could be as controversial an ambassador as John Gavin, who served as ambassador to Mexico during Ronald Reagan’s administration in the 1980s.

In any case, this appointment completes a trifecta that could spell challenges for Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration. Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American well-versed in the region, holds strong opinions on regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—countries with which the Mexican government maintains cordial relations. Rubio also shares concerns with his government about Chinese influence and Russian activities in Latin America, which could become additional friction points with Mexico, proud of its independent foreign policy.

Will Johnson’s presence bring demands for Mexico to align more closely with the United States? The question is valid, given the potential pressures that Rubio, the newly appointed Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America, Chris Landau, and Johnson himself could exert.

It will be hard to claim they are unfamiliar with Mexico. These officials may adopt a tactic that suits Trump well: announcing the worst-case scenario so that a less severe outcome seems more acceptable. This could define the pattern of bilateral relations in the coming years.

José Carreño Figueras